Category Archives: Referendum odds

Final polling and betting data

Posted on September 17, 2014 by

The implied probability of a No vote based on bookmakers odds up to 7pm on the 17th of September and the opinion poll probabilities of a No outcome (eliminating the don’t knows) are shown in Figure 1 below. The odds … Continue reading →

Posted in Referendum odds, Risk

Why are the opinion polls and the bookies odds so different?

Posted on September 15, 2014 by

The latest odds (Sunday 14th September) show that the implied probability of a No vote, based on the odds offered by 24 bookmakers up to midday on Sep 14th have stabilised at around 0.8. To find out how I calculate these odds, … Continue reading →

Posted in Referendum odds, Risk

The Referendum: Latest Odds

Posted on August 6, 2014 by

The bookies odds have been gradually moving in favour of a ‘No’ vote. I explained how these odds are calculated here. My latest estimates, which are described in this post, reflect the odds taken up to 12 noon on 6th … Continue reading →

Posted in Debates, Referendum odds