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Category Archives: Referendum odds
Final polling and betting data
The implied probability of a No vote based on bookmakers odds up to 7pm on the 17th of September and the opinion poll probabilities of a No outcome (eliminating the don’t knows) are shown in Figure 1 below. The odds … Continue reading
Posted in Referendum odds, Risk
Why are the opinion polls and the bookies odds so different?
The latest odds (Sunday 14th September) show that the implied probability of a No vote, based on the odds offered by 24 bookmakers up to midday on Sep 14th have stabilised at around 0.8. To find out how I calculate these odds, … Continue reading
Posted in Referendum odds, Risk
The Referendum: Latest Odds
The bookies odds have been gradually moving in favour of a ‘No’ vote. I explained how these odds are calculated here. My latest estimates, which are described in this post, reflect the odds taken up to 12 noon on 6th … Continue reading
Posted in Debates, Referendum odds